GotMMOG?

So, Turbine seems to feel DDO’s F2P success is contagious enough to switch LOTRO over to the F2P model. Cheapskates around the world will cheer this fall…

Seriously, though, I’m not sure if this is going to be a new trend (i.e. start with subs then migrate to F2P as the game loses momentum and settles down) or if it’s just adding nails to the coffin of MMOs that find themselves in the boonies.

It makes financial sense, obviously, or they wouldn’t do it. Turbine seems to have the revenue to prove it from the DDO switch over. But, you realize what this is right? It’s just basic economics. See the game started off with a box you paid for ($50) and a sub that fueled the fire ($15/mo).

LOTRO had a nice start and I’m sure brought in a lot of money (though if you’re trying to look at it from the perspective of paying off the original dev costs, it might have only happened recently). But, as we all know, after a few months, the shiny sheen wears off and people see the flaws or limitations or excuses for why they don’t like the game. With a $15/mo subscription, it also means the next big game that comes along (like WAR or Aion) will pull those limited funds that many people have to another developer.

My guess is, with a diminished but is likely at 200k or more (based on a 300k subscriber base in April of 2008).  If people are paying on average about $12/mo (considering a rough estimate of where it would be with discounts from pre-paid periods), they’re pulling in $3.5 million a month. I don’t know about you but that seems like a nice amount of income to me. If you think of it from a pure economics perspective, it costs next to nothing to maintain a bunch of servers. And paying a small team of developers (maybe it’s a large team?) to take care of the game should easily fit into $3.5 mil a month (remember, that’s PER MONTH, not annual).

Now, you’re going F2P. If you’re already a subscriber, you should’ve gotten a notice saying you’ve been converted over to the VIP membership/status which just means you’re the same old subscriber before the switch over. What they’re likely hoping for is that you’ll fall into the crack model and get a taste (F2P) that’ll develop into a habit. That habit will lead you to eventually want the content that you don’t get (I still haven’t see how it looks to NOT have that content…I guess you just don’t see the quests or items?) and so you’ll shell out a premium to get it.

Obviously, it helped them rekindle DDO’s fire and bring in a lot more revenue. But, then again, you won’t find DDO on that Market Share pie chart at voig.com. 500% of a trickle is just a larger trickle.

Still, the real question is: will the moochers (F2P players) pony up for additional content or will the free game be funded by the wealthier players that either continue to subscribe (VIP) or just budget their spending into $15 a month worth of Turbine Points? I’m sure some will and that’ll help Turbine justify the move. But, won’t some of those subscribers who see no reason to continue paying for a free game any more just downgrade (and thus reduce revenue)? I think so, though some people won’t want to give up on what they already got/looted. They might effectively be extorted into sticking with a VIP sub just so they don’t lose anything.

I guess the plus side (outside of the potential revenue) is that LOTRO will likely live a little longer with an influx of freebies coming in to try the game or play it again. I still don’t think you should get your hopes up that you’ll see a day anytime soon when every MMO out there will be free. F2P is not for every game and not for every business model. It’s also a big gamble for publishers who’ve spent $20+ million investing in the development of the game only to give it away for free and hope you do the microtrans thing.

Sounds a lot like another business model that’s been pretty successful: razor blades. The big difference is that you need those razor blades to shave. You don’t NEED the extra content unless you’re bored or you need some gear that you don’t want to spend hours trying to get some random mob to drop. I’m still waiting for the Vegas model: you pay a metered rate per hour and get a chance to win game play credits as loot in the game. You can only win those “jackpots” by playing which means you’re paying. The problem? It’s always going to end up being in the house’s favor and that’s when it stops being a game and starts being just another “tax” on your fun.

g afk

Wow, the latest expansion for LOTRO, Siege of Mirkwood, is (at least for now) online-only. I almost missed it since there isn’t a box out there to grab in a store or find on Amazon. Instead, you’ll find yourself directed here.

$39.99 buys you the expansion and an adventurer’s pack that gives you more slots of characters and items amongst other things.

To me, while it makes sense (it’s an online game after all), it seems like they might be limiting themselves for a game that is already limited to it’s base slice of players in the market. Why wouldn’t you use this as an opportunity to bring people back so you can get a nice little blip or maybe grab some returning players for longer because of expanded content or new updates to the interface/gameplay? It’s almost like they just gave up…kind of like many of SOE’s games that just make due rather than try to reinvent themselves to reinvigorate their subscriber base.

Sorry but I have a feeling LOTRO’s days are numbered. It won’t die tomorrow but it’s definitely not looking like 2010 will be good for them.

g afk

Gamasutra’s reporting that Turbine has chosen a third party company to handle its microtransactions platform as it moves to a F2P model for Dungeons and Dragons Online. Supposedly, the switch to F2P was a “planned” transition over the course of a year. Uh, but I think your subs were pretty lackluster for that year and earlier. Long enough that Penny Arcade had a little fun when you tried to push content to bring people in. That was January 2008. 18 months ago.

Anyway, you go, girl. I guess LOTRO must be bringing in enough money for them to spend money and time testing out F2P on DDO…and to give DDO another chance before they pull the plug. It could also be helped by the recent round of funding they collected.

Honestly, from a business perspective, cool. Let’s see if F2P will save a game (along with the updates they’ve put together for the expansion that will bring the game into F2P mode)…Of course, from a game design/gamer perspective, just because it’s free doesn’t mean people will swarm. Still, they might actually see a bump in income as people opt to toss money away in microtrans and as some people who want to keep their WoW (or even Aion?) subscriptions running while trying another MMO.

But, with Guild Wars out there, is it worth it? Guild Wars is prettier and has a ton of content. GW2 is coming out some day and Aion’s about to launch. Oh, and we can’t forget Cataclysm’s going to pop it’s head out there sometime soon (I can’t imagine Activision Blizzard won’t want to take advantage of the coming holiday season to release that baby…especially if they’re already demoing it at PAX in September.

Again, we’ll see but I’m not holding my breath. Might be worth it to consider new MMO IP…maybe in a non-Fantasy genre?? Hmm?? Hey, Turbine, if you’re interested in licensing a new IP, call my people…

g afk

Dungeons and Dragons Online (Turbine)

Like a phoenix, DDO rises again into view again. This time, it’s to tote the fact that they can’t seem to sell it so they’ve got to give it away.

We played the intro/tutorial level a bit and it was…well….boring. I mean, their model mimics Guild Wars with instanced content and public waiting rooms. Watching the wait as a switch is pulled and the barren caverns we traveled through during the tutorial (where, ironically, you’re escorting high level NPCs who are letting you do it…to humor themselves or what?). At least you can skip it when creating your second character.

I don’t know. I think they’re really searching for relevancy for this MMO. I hate seeing MMOs close down but seriously. If you want free to play, instanced, fantasy-themed gameplay, you can pick up Guild Wars and view a pretty engine too. If you want a “real” MMO with a fantasy environment thrown in, you can pick WoW, WAR, and Aion in a few weeks. And if you’re tired of fantasy, there are tons of choices out or coming out including Champions Online, CrimeCraft, Eve Online, and the coming (though still relatively far off) Star Trek Online.

Good luck, DDO. Turbine? Maybe you should focus more on LOTRO and finding a new MMO…

g afk