The real question is, what tanked it? Was it the lack of anything really interesting? (Check!) Or was it the fact that making it free to play diminished its perceived value anyway? (Maybe!)

Again, not having played it, it’s difficult to judge the gameplay but something tells me that’s usually it. I mean, c’mon, if there were a free game out there that was awesome, wouldn’t you play it? And you’d expect a percentage of you would be willing to shell out AT LEAST $5 a month to get access to something (assuming it was anything worthwhile), right?

I don’t get it. These MMOs get flung out there and they think just because they lowered the bar to zero so anyone can play it that they can compensate for something that just isn’t fun. Worse yet, why come back? It’s not costing you anything so there’s no “maybe I should try to play this thing since I’m paying for it.” Worried about cancellations? Worry about WHY they’re canceling not how MANY are canceling.

The MMO market has quickly taken on the gym membership model for business and people wonder why MMOs don’t “make it.” I’ve likened the gym membership model to a rowboat that’s leaking water like a sieve. The gyms are baling water out fast enough that they’re not sinking (new memberships) but not addressing the fact that the water’s still coming in (canceled memberships). Did you know there was this statistic a couple years back that gyms added 1.7 million membership in a given period…and lost 1.4 million to other gyms or attrition.

If a game is solid in terms of features and playability (both as a noob and as a vet) and isn’t ridiculously priced, it’s going to do well. Sure, you’ve still got to get enough people in the door to create a network effect so that the floodgates just open but build it well enough and market it right and you’ll get there. It’s not like WoW got 11 million subscribers year one. It’s taken FIVE years to get there…with a lot of that subscriber base being recent adds both by entering new markets outside the US (remember, they’ve got 6 million of those subscribers in Asia) and in recent years (it’s not like they were at 11 million by 2005).

I’m curious to see how Aion does. They’ve already got a chunk of Asian subs. According to Wikipedia, WoW’s 11 million includes about 2.5 million or more NA subs (2.5 million in early 2008 so I’m guessing closer to 3-3.5 million by now). If Aion can break a million in NA and another million in the EU, then I think we’d have a solid contender for the “WoW-killer” title everyone seems to want to bestow on someone. Wouldn’t it be funny if Blizzard’s next MMO is the one that kills WoW?

g afk